Alumina Futures Rebound Slightly Spot Continues Downward Trend [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 3.25 Futures: The most-traded 2505 alumina contract opened at 3,075 yuan/mt, reached a high of 3,015 yuan/mt, a low of 3,069 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,074 yuan/mt, up 1 yuan/mt or 0.04%. Open interest was 214,000 lots. Ore: As of March 24, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $93.33/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $91/mt, unchanged; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $87/mt, unchanged; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $81/mt, unchanged. Spot Alumina: On Monday, an aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for some spot alumina, with transaction prices ranging from 3,350 to 3,370 yuan/mt delivered to the factory. Industry News: A large alumina refinery in Shandong reduced its liquid caustic soda purchase price. According to SMM, starting from March 23, a major alumina refinery in Shandong adjusted the purchase price of 32% ion membrane liquid caustic soda, reducing it by 40 yuan/mt from 880 yuan/mt; the new ex-factory price under the two-invoice system is 840 yuan/mt (equivalent to about 2,625 yuan/mt on a 100% basis). The Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry announced a definitive affirmative anti-dumping ruling on aluminum foil with a thickness not exceeding 80 microns, originating from or imported from China, and recommended imposing a five-year anti-dumping duty of 479-721 $/mt. The products subject to the investigation include aluminum foil with a width less than 500 mm and a purity of 99.335% used for capacitors, as well as aluminum foil with a thickness between 5.5 and 80 microns. Products not subject to the duty include: 1. Aluminum foil with a thickness below 5.5 microns for non-capacitor use; 2. Aluminum foil with a thickness below 5 microns and 5-5.5 microns for capacitor use; 3. Ultra-light conversion aluminum foil with a thickness of 5.5-7 microns, used for insulation, fragrance packaging, thermal fluid line covering, and tea packaging; 4. Etched or formed aluminum foil for electrolytic capacitors; 5. Aluminum composite panels for surface coating and signage applications; 6. Laminated aluminum foil; 7. Aluminum foil for beer bottles, 10.5 microns thick, with a rough and porous surface, whether printed or not; 8. Aluminum-manganese-silicon alloy and/or laminated aluminum-manganese-silicon alloy; 9. Aluminum foil tape; 10. Colored coated aluminum foil; 11. Polyurethane coated aluminum foil. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily: According to SMM data, on March 24, the SMM alumina index had a premium of 79 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract at 11:30 am. Warrant Daily: On March 24, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 595 mt to 277,500 mt. In Shandong, the total registered volume remained unchanged at 4,513 mt. In Henan, the total registered volume decreased by 1,799 mt to 27,300 mt. In Guangxi, the total registered volume remained unchanged at 49,800 mt. In Gansu, the total registered volume increased by 1,204 mt to 22,500 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered volume remained unchanged at 173,300 mt. Overseas Market: As of March 24, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $400/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.20/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.27, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 3,541 yuan/mt, which is 389 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed. For exports, based on the latest spot alumina transaction prices in Shandong, the domestic alumina export cost is around $450/mt, lower than the overseas alumina spot price, keeping the export window closed. Summary: Recently, the weekly operating rate of alumina has been slightly reduced. As of last Thursday, according to SMM data, the total operating capacity of metallurgical alumina nationwide decreased to 88.01 million mt/year, but the reduction was limited. As of last Thursday, the total operating capacity of domestic aluminum was 43.84 million mt/year, equivalent to an alumina demand capacity of around 84.4 million mt/year. Even considering net alumina exports, the fundamentals still indicate a supply surplus. In the short term, alumina prices may continue to be under pressure. Continued attention should be paid to changes in alumina operating capacity. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely solely on this information. Any decision made by clients is unrelated to SMM.]